Sunday, June 18, 2006

A10 South OOC schedule strength

Yesterday we looked at the OOC (out-of conference) strength-of-schedule for the A10 North. Gaming the OOC is crucial to a team's chances for a playoff birth. Schedule too strong an OOC (a la Northeastern) and a season can be doomed before it's started. Schedule too weak an OOC, with two DII teams, for instance, and the necessary 7 I-AA wins may not be achievable.

In the opinion of the the UMass Football Blog, the A10 South plays a significantly weaker OOC than their northern brothers. Matt Dougherty awarded two A10 teams with his "softest schedule" designation in his article discussing OOC strength. Part of that stems from everybody in the A10 South playing Elon 3-8, Liberty 1-10 and VMI 3-8.

My take in order of OOC difficulty:
  1. Villanova-- Central Florida, Lehigh,@Penn. A I-A team, a Patriot League Champion contender and rival Penn constitute the toughest OOC schedule in the A10 South. Prediction 0-3
  2. William & Mary--@Maryland, VMI, @Liberty. Well, Maryland is better than Central Florida, but the Tribe has two sure wins in the other games. Prediction 2-1
  3. James Madison--@Appalachian State, Bloomburg (DII), @VMI. Another A10 South team that traditionally plays a soft OOC. This year they do have a good game with National Champion Appy State, but Bloomburg and VMI are sure wins. Prediction 3-0.
  4. Richmond-- @ Duke, VMI, Bucknell. The Spiders play I-A Duke (1-10), VMI (3-8) and Bucknell (1-10). That speaks for itself. Prediction 2-1 and the Spiders scare the hell out of Duke.
  5. Delaware--West Chester (DII), Albany, Hofstra. Matt Dougherty awarded the Hens the "softest schedule in I-AA" award in his article, but I bumped them to #2 on the fact that Hofstra (7-4) last year should be a competitive game. Still, all three games are at home. Prediction 3-0
  6. Towson--Morgan State (2-9), @Elon, Liberty. The Tigers have not lost an OOC game in two years. Towson makes it 9-0 in OOC games with this schedule...